Senator JD Vance is currently leading the field of potential 2028 presidential candidates, according to new data from Polymarket, the world’s largest cryptocurrency-based prediction market. Bettors on the platform give Vance a 27% chance of winning the presidency — the highest of any candidate.
Vance, 40, who is widely seen as a rising star in Republican politics and recently selected as the vice-presidential nominee, has hinted at a future White House run. Speaking on Fox & Friends in April, he said, “When we get to that point, I’ll talk to the president, we’ll figure out what we want to do. But the way that I think about it is, if we do a good job, the politics take care of themselves.”
Trailing Vance is California Governor Gavin Newsom, with a 14% chance. While Newsom has denied actively planning a run, he recently told The Wall Street Journal that “it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ranks third at 10%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 8%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio comes in at 6%, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro holds a 5% chance.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are tied at 4%, rounding out the top contenders according to current market speculation.
While these odds are far from definitive, they reflect shifting political sentiment and early enthusiasm as attention gradually turns to the post-2024 landscape.
