The US government may be on the hook to refund up to $1 trillion if the Supreme Court rules that a large portion of former President Trump’s tariffs were unlawful, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned.
Since the tariffs were imposed in April, the government has already collected tens of billions of dollars in duties. However, two lower courts have found the tariffs to be an overreach of executive power. Should the Supreme Court uphold these rulings, the US could be required to return between $750 billion and $1 trillion in tariff revenues, according to Bessent’s recent court filing.
This potential refund includes around $72 billion collected by US Customs between Trump’s April announcement and August 24, plus projected collections through next June. Notably, $30 billion was collected in July alone—a 242% increase compared to the same month last year, Treasury Department data shows.
The Trump administration is pushing the Supreme Court to hear the case promptly, warning that delaying a decision until next summer would risk accumulating even more tariff revenue that may have to be refunded. Bessent cautioned that reversing the tariffs now could cause significant economic disruption.
Refunding tariff revenues is not without precedent. Under the Biden administration, some importers received refunds for certain Chinese goods, but those amounts were far smaller than the potential payouts tied to Trump’s broader tariff program.
Despite these warnings, Bessent expressed confidence that the Supreme Court will ultimately uphold the tariffs. “If refunds are ordered, we would have to comply—but that would be terrible,” he told NBC News’ “Meet the Press.”
Solicitor General D. John Sauer stressed the high stakes in the case, arguing that tariffs have been a key driver of US economic strength. “With tariffs, we are a rich nation; without them, we are a poor nation,” Sauer said, warning that a ruling against the tariffs could lead to “ruinous” economic consequences.
If refunds are mandated, US Customs may face a substantial operational burden, compounded by recent changes such as the end of the de minimis exemption, which previously allowed low-value shipments to bypass tariffs.
Trade experts advise companies impacted by the tariffs to maintain detailed records of their payments to prepare for possible future refund claims. Importers who believe they were incorrectly charged may also seek reimbursement.
Trump’s tariff structure has become increasingly complicated over time, with some duties stacking and others—like those on steel, aluminum, and copper—calculated based on precise product content.
