WASHINGTON — A newly announced peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by former President Donald Trump, is being hailed as a breakthrough in a conflict that has lasted for decades — and as a strategic win for the United States over Russia in the volatile Caucasus region.
The centerpiece of the deal is a 20-mile transit corridor dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.” This corridor would allow Azerbaijan to connect directly with its exclave, Nakhchivan, bypassing long detours and restoring key trade routes that have been blocked due to tensions with Armenia.
“It’s like how the U.S. has to pass through Canada to get to Alaska,” explained Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “In this case, Azerbaijan is cut in half — and this route re-links it.”
Russia previously attempted to broker a similar corridor as part of a 2020 ceasefire but failed to deliver. That inaction has fueled Armenian frustration, especially after Moscow did little to defend Armenia during Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive to reclaim the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Under Trump’s deal, the U.S. gains exclusive development rights along the new corridor, positioning Washington as a key power broker in the region and sidelining Russia — a nation historically tied to both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“Russia used to maintain control in the Caucasus by keeping this conflict frozen,” said John Hardie, director of the Russia program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Now they’re being pushed out.”
This shift could have broader implications, potentially weakening Russian influence across its former Soviet sphere as Vladimir Putin remains focused on his war in Ukraine. Putin has frequently expressed regret over the breakup of the USSR, calling it a “geopolitical catastrophe.”
Though it’s too early to say whether this new U.S. role will impact the war in Ukraine, experts agree: Moscow won’t be pleased.
“This deal puts the U.S. in the driver’s seat,” Coffey said. “And it underscores just how much sway Russia has lost in its own backyard.”
