WASHINGTON — A peace deal brokered by former President Donald Trump between long-time rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan marks a significant diplomatic breakthrough — and positions the United States to gain new influence in a region long dominated by Russia.
The agreement includes the creation of a 20-mile transit corridor — dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” — that will give Azerbaijan direct access to its western exclave, Nakhchivan, bypassing current restrictions through Armenian territory.
“This is like the U.S. and Alaska, but with Armenia in the middle instead of Canada,” explained Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “For decades, Azerbaijanis couldn’t reach Nakhchivan directly due to the ongoing conflict and Armenian control.”
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in hostilities since the late 1980s, with clashes centered around the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Though a similar transit corridor was promised in earlier ceasefire agreements, Russia — previously the main regional powerbroker — failed to implement it.
Frustration with Moscow has grown in Armenia, especially after Russia refused to intervene during Azerbaijan’s successful military push to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Once a close ally of Russia, Armenia has increasingly distanced itself from the Kremlin.
Under the new deal, the U.S. gains exclusive development rights along the proposed transit corridor, signaling a broader strategic shift. Experts say the agreement allows Washington to step into a void left by a distracted and weakened Moscow, which remains embroiled in its war in Ukraine.
“This shows the diminishing sway of Russia in its so-called ‘near-abroad,’” said John Hardie of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “They’re being sidelined in a conflict they used to control — and that’s a major shift.”
While the deal may not directly impact the war in Ukraine, analysts say it underscores growing U.S. influence in the Caucasus — and another setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly called the fall of the Soviet Union the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.
“This isn’t just about Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Coffey said. “It’s about the U.S. stepping up where Russia is stepping back.”
